Back in the Dark Ages – by which I mean the mid 1980s – a time before mobile phones, let alone Facebook, we somehow managed to enjoy a vibrant social life. We relied on something far more potent than technology: we understood human behaviour. In practical terms this meant that we could predict, with a reasonably level of certainty, which pub would be frequented by a particular group of people at a particular time. Even in those pre behavioural economics days, we realised that people are habitual and find comfort in repetition. We saw how behaviour is conditioned by contextual factors: the weather, the time of week, the proximity to exam deadlines, the screening of a particular TV programme. We were insightful people.
Technology is a wonderful thing: I have written two books charting its effect on people’s behaviour and expectations, so I hope I could never be described as a Luddite. Algorithms have become cool: Robert Harris’ new book, The Fear Index, is about a maths genius who creates a revolutionary form of artificial intelligence that tracks human emotions, enabling him to predict movements in the financial markets with uncanny accuracy. But machines will never understand people as well as people understand people. This is why success in social media is more dependent on an understanding of human behaviour than an understanding of technology and why some of the best thinking on the subject is coming from anthropologists and social psychologists, who have an appreciation of the social and cultural impact of this new technology.
I run workshops that aim to help people to become more insightful and one of the key points I make is to trust your instincts. Interrogation of data and people is important; social media analysis can provides us with an abundance of real time data; and algorythms have turned Google into the world’s most influential business, but I have yet to come across a breakthrough insight that didn’t come from someone’s imagination, intellect and observational skills. Being an insightful person – and everyone can learn how to be insightful – may no longer be required to locate your mates in a pub, but it has never been more important.